Analysis: Raisi's death comes at a fraught time for the Middle East — and Iran itself
From CNN's Jerome Taylor
The death of Iran’s president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash on a remote mountainside comes at an especially fraught moment in the Middle East – and for Iran domestically.
Israel’s war against Hamas and the subsequent humanitarian catastrophe that has unfolded in Gaza over the last seven months has inflamed global opinion and sent tensions soaring across the Middle East.
It has also brought a decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel out into the open.
Last month, Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel — its first direct attack on the country — in response to a deadly apparent Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
Israel struck back a week later, according to US officials, hitting targets outside the Iranian city of Isfahan with a much smaller, calibrated response.
Since then the tit-for-tat direct strikes between the two have stopped. But the proxy war continues with Iran-backed militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah continuing to fight Israel’s forces.
Meanwhile, Iran’s hardline leadership has weathered an explosion of recent popular dissent on the streets at home where years of US-led sanctions have hit hard.
The country was convulsed by youth-led demonstrations against clerical rule and worsening economic conditions following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s notorious morality police.
Iranian authorities have since launched a widening crackdown on dissent in response to the protests.
That crackdown has led to human rights violations, some of which amount to “crimes against humanity,” according to a United Nations report released in March.
And while the protests have largely stopped, opposition to clerical leadership remains deeply entrenched among many Iranians, especially the young, who yearn for reform, jobs and a move away from stifling religious rule.
A former hardline judiciary chief with his own brutal human rights record, Raisi was elected president in 2021 in a vote heavily engineered by the Islamic Republic’s political elite so that he would run virtually uncontested.
Raisi defeated a more moderate candidate and his victory was seen to signal the start of a new harder-line era in Iran. Yet turnout for that election was just 41 percent, a record low.
The powers of Iran's president are ultimatelydwarfed by those ofSupreme LeaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic.
With Raisi dead, it is likely new elections will have to be held.
The Iranian constitution mandates that the Vice President — currently Mohammad Mokhbar — will assume the position of interim president and that new presidential elections will be held within 50 days.
That means Iran's clerical establishment, headed by Khamenei, must now find a new leader they can throw their support behind against a backdrop of intense regional insecurity and domestic discontent.
Iran's government convenes urgent meeting, Iranian state media reports
From CNN'sArtemisMoshtaghian and AlirezaHajihosseini
Iran's government convened an "urgent meeting" on Monday following the announcement that President Ebrahim Raisi and the country's foreign minister were among those who died in a helicopter crash, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.
The chair that Raisi usually sits in was vacant, and was draped with a black sash in memory of the president, according to a photo shared by state news.
The timing and details of a mourning procession will be announced in the future, state media FARS News Agency reported.
Weather would have played a key role in helicopter crash, military analyst says
From CNN staff
Weather would have played a key role in the helicopter crash that killed Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, said CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton.
“You have fog, you haverain, you have coldtemperatures,” Leighton told CNN's Paula Newton. “With temperaturesbelow 50 degrees Fahrenheit (10 degrees Celsius) you findthat there's the possibilityat higher altitudes of icing ofthe rotor blades," he said.
"There's apossibility of potentially engine failure, sothere are a lot of differentthings that could in fact, Ihave been part of this.”
Leighton added maintenance of the aircraft would have also played a role, pointing to how Iran has been living undersanctions and usingold equipment totransport their high-levelleaders.
“Theother factor in this would bemaintenance — whether or not thehelicopter was properlymaintained.”
BREAKING: Iranian President Raisi is confirmed dead after helicopter crash, state agencies say
From CNN's ArtemisMoshtaghian
Iranian media has confirmed the death of Iran's PresidentEbrahim Raisi, aged 63, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian following ahelicopter crash in the country's mountainous province of East Azerbaijan.
Iranian state media Press TV and semi-official Tasnim and Mehr news agencies reported all those on board were killed.
Reuters also reported the president's death, citing a senior official.
“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” the official told Reuters, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The head of Iran's Red Crescent,Pir-Hossein Kolivand,said earlier Monday there were no signs of life of those traveling on board the helicopter, Iranian state news IRIB reported.
The helicopter carrying nine people ran into trouble in heavy fog while returning from a trip to the Iran-Azerbaijan border, Iranian officials said Sunday.
The crash prompted an hours-long search-and-rescue operation with assistance from the European Union and Turkey, among others, but emergency crews were hampered by the fog and plummeting temperatures.
Iran about to enter a “tumultuous period” following helicopter crash, Atlantic contributor says
From CNN staff
Iran will enter a “tumultuous period” following the crash of the helicopter carrying the country’s President Ebrahim Raisi, said Arash Azizi, a contributor at The Atlantic.
Azizi spoke to CNN's Paula Newton before Raisi's death was confirmed.
“The power struggle between different factions in the Islamicrepublic is surely going toheighten now,” he said
Azizi said there could be a lot of infighting but there would not be a constitutional crisis.
“They will organize theelections (within) 50 days, so Idon't think you'll have any ahuge surprises there. There might be occasions forpopular protests again, as, asthere often is when there'sa political crisis,” Azizi said.
Azizi also noted that Raisi “had a lot of blood on his hands.”
“Perhaps noother official of the IslamicRepublic is responsible formore deaths because he was inthe judiciary for many years.And so a lot of Iranians aregoing to shed no tears,” Raisi said. “But nevertheless it’s a momentous occasion.”
Here's how succession works in the case of a president's death.
It's 7:30 a.m. in Tehran. Here's what we know
CNN staff
Iran’s president is believed dead after Iranian media agencies reported that “no survivors” were found at the crash site of a helicopter carrying him and eight others.
President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were among the senior officials on board the downed helicopter.
Drone footage of the wreckage taken by the Red Crescent and carried on state media FARS News Agency showed the crash site on a steep, wooded hillside, with little remaining of the helicopter beyond a blue and white tail.
- What may happen next: As president of Iran, Raisi is the second most powerful individual in the Islamic Republic's political structure after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian Constitution mandates, in the case of the death of the President, the first vice president shall assume, with the approval of the Supreme Leader, the powers and functions of the president.
- Analysis: The crash comes at an especially fraught moment in the Middle East, with war raging in Gaza and weeks afterIran launched a drone-and-missile attackon Israel in response to a deadly strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus. Domestically, Iran's religious clerics are faced with youth-led protests against worsening economic conditions following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s notorious morality police.
- About the helicopter: The president and eight others were likely traveling on an old Bell 212 helicopter that began operating in the late 1960s, according to CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton. He told CNN's Paula Newton that the difficulty in obtaining spare parts could have played a factor in the crash.
How succession works in the case of a president's death in Iran
From CNN's Adam Pourahmadiand AnneClaire Stapleton
The Iranian Constitution mandates that in the case of the death of the president, the first vice president shall assume, with the approval of the Supreme Leader, the powers and functions of the president.
First Vice President MohammadMokhber would assume the role if the current president dies and Iran's Supreme LeaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei approves. Officials said earlier that Mokhber was en route to the area where the president's helicopter went down.
Additionally, the constitution mandates the three heads of the branches of government — the vice president, speaker of the parliament and the head of the judiciary — must arrange for an election to choose a new leader within 50 days of the vice president assuming the role of acting president.
Keep in mind: Iran's supreme leader serves as the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic, dwarfing the powers of the country's president.
Unlike his predecessor, the moderate former President Hassan Rouhani, Raisi has fostered a close alliance with Khamenei.Many Iranians believe Raisi is being groomed to be elevated to the supreme leadership.
Drone footage shows wreckage of crashed helicopter
From CNN's Jerome Taylor
Iran’s president and foreign minister are presumed dead after Iranian media agencies reported that “no survivors” were found at the crash site of a helicopter carrying the two men and seven others.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were among the senior officials on board the downed helicopter.
Drone footage of the wreckage taken by the Red Crescent and carried on state media FARS News Agency showed the crash site on a steep, wooded hillside, with little remaining of the helicopter beyond a blue and white tail.
No official announcement of their deaths has yet been made.
Reuters news agency also cited an unnamed Iranian official as saying all passengers are feared dead.
Raisi was likely traveling on a Bell 212 helicopter acquired before the Iranian Revolution, military expert says
From CNN's Rhea Mogul
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was likely traveling on a Bell 212 helicopter that began operating in the late 1960s, according to CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton.
Leighton told CNN's Paula Newton that the difficulty in obtaining spare parts could have played a factor in the crash.
The helicopter was first produced in the United States and then in Canada, Leighton, a retired US Air Force colonel, said.
“It was firstintroduced during the latter period of the Shah’s rule in 1976 in commercial form and it had a life before that in the US military, so the actual start of this particular type of helicopter may have been as early as the late 1960s,” Leighton said.
“So spareparts would have definitelybeen an issue for the Iranians.”
“In this particular case, Ithink this confluence of spareparts, because of the sanctions,plus the weather which wasvery bad over the last fewdays in this particular part ofnorthwestern Iran. All of that,I think contributed to a seriesof incidents and a series ofdecisions that the pilot andpossibly even the presidenthimself made when it came toflying this aircraft…And unfortunately forthem, the result is this crash.”
